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估值基数(元)
未来N年增长(%)
折现率(%) 相当于 - 倍PE
永续增长率(%)
估值(亿元)

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计算估值
总市值(亿元)

-
阶段 未来值 现值
暂无数据
- +

建议参数

最近1年(归母净利)
-
选我填入估值基数
三年平均(归母)
-
选我
五年平均(归母)
-
选我
十年平均(归母)
-
选我
建议折现率(%)
-
使用并填入折现率

复合增长率

3年增长（%）
-
选我填入近年增长
5年增长（%）
-
选我
8年增长（%）
-
选我
10年增长（%）
-
选我
上市以来增长（%）
-
选我

说明:


一、关于估值基数
  1. 不要迷信自由现金流,大多企业没有还不好算。如果你非要算，我也不拦你，你自已算好填入基数框就可以了。
  2. 长期来说净利润等于经营现金流净额,且净利润中还包含折旧，如果长期不等于先看看是不是假账
  3. 我们给了四种口径的归母净利,如果差异太大,不建议使用DCF估值，他不适合

二、未来x年增长
  1. 我们提供了四个值，要选就选最低的。如果波动很大的周期股，最好放弃DCF估值法
  2. 阶段建议用5年左右，正常人的眼界最多看到五年后的企业，说十年后企业是什么样子，其实都是瞎猜。
  3. 建议保守，30~40+增速的企业不适合DCF（除非使用年份少）

三、关于折现率
  1. 建议使用我们的参数
  2. 不用也是可以，但你至少要知道他是什么意思

四、永续增长率
  1. 为了避免你过份乐观，我们锁死了上限（上限3%）
  2. 默认是0，我们也建议使用0，哪有什么永远？都是骗鬼的话

五、其它用途
  1. 如果你要算复利，其它值填零，只填基数。然后看未来值，要看几年加几年
  2. 同理估算通胀贬值也是可以的，只填期数和折现率，其它填零然后看现值，要看几年加几年
  3. 另外你还可以测算企业需要多少的成长，才能配的上现在的市值

评价数据

N年折现合计

-
永续价值

-
估值

-
证券代码000568
上市年数27.99
财报时间2018-12-31
财报季节4
财报评分98
财报平均分93.4
最终参考130.73
估值pb6.21
估值pe22.2
dcf120.16
VP.6204
R0.049
R1229修106.18
每股收益5.89
成长评分12295
成长估值1229130.73
close_now210.73
pe_now81.2277
pb_now21.009
wr637.2245
wr1037.2245
ratio_day_fail81.97%
ratio_success94.12%
r_count_success16
r_count_fail1
r_count_unknow0
刷新日期2022/5/2 0:59:59
评语

经营性利润占97

现金流优秀，超过了净利润

净资产收益率20.5,历害！

毛利率高达77.53

净利率26.89，优秀！

期间费用30.35有点多，毛利润是不是都被三费给吃了？

货卖的很慢需要375.84天，是产品生产周期太长？还是存货滞销了？

账期短68.49天能把钱收回来

一个经营周期大概需要349.89天,效率低下啊！钱是被谁占用了吗？（白酒、房地产除外）

轻资产企业，固定类资产仅有17.83

负债大多都是经营性的，占总负债87.81不错

销售费用25.99广告费？学术推广？返佣？

可以占用上下游资金，能欠货款100.34天！

自选False

财报原始数据

000568
泸州老窖
泸州老窖股份有限公司
食品饮料
白酒
147161.5
19940509
L
3434
四川
泸州市
www.lzlj.com
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sql
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000568
2001-12-31
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000568
2000-12-31
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000568
1999-12-31
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000568
1998-12-31
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65148340.64
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122891957.2
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3621
208799398.55
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a_24
000568
1997-12-31
129204661.77
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a_25
000568
1996-12-31
87999644.77
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1375664
18227500
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000568
1995-12-31
54873159.03
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9118505
2697795.2
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188286.25
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000568
1994-12-31
43433080.63
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